The End of International Aid and an Opportunity?

This article is my personal view and does not necessarily represent that of any organizations I am associated with.

The international aid and humanitarian system is under attack, following an Executive Order from the incoming US President on January 20th. Some go so far as to say ‘A future without USAID programs would be catastrophic and devastating to global health and development progress.’ Others write of the ‘humanitarian disaster’ that will result in the freezing of USAID funding by the new US administration.

In 2024, USAID provided roughly $72 billion in humanitarian assistance globally, which is around 40% of global assistance. I say ‘roughly’ because, at the time of writing, the USAID fact sheet I would usually consult has vanished along with the rest of the USAID website. For now at least, the past has disappeared, except to announce today additional suspensions of many thousands of staff. Many billions were also spent on nonemergency programs in areas such as governance and human rights.

Full disclosure: I have worked on many USAID-funded programmes or those funded by other branches of the government. So, what I say below may not be welcomed by everyone, some of whom may, with justification, accuse me of hypocrisy or worse.

The aid system was broken a long time before the recent attacks on USAID. Here’s an eight-year-old article from The Lancet, an Oped I wrote twenty years ago, or this written by Alex de Waal more than thirty years ago.  Many in the system know it has been broken for a very long time. It operates, still, in a largely colonial context (frankly, some of the systems aren’t even neo-colonial), creates vastly unequal power balances and, reduces tens of millions of people to ‘beneficiaries’, passive recipients of northern largess. The language of ‘empowerment’ so often means something ‘we’ do to ‘others.’ The incentives in the system create bloated NGOs and those with next to no resources.

So, while undertaken in an unnecessarily harmful way, we should look for opportunities following the (near) demise of USAID and note that European countries have also been on the retreat.  Germany, for instance, has cut over €4.8 billion ($5.3 billion) from its core development and humanitarian assistance between 2022 and 2025. France and the United Kingdom have also reduced their aid budgets by over $1 billion and $900 million, respectively in the past 3 years. Global aid budgets are in sharp decline.

I admire the thoughtful work of Themrise Khan Khan, who has written incisively on the aid industry, decolonization, and the collapse of USAID.  However, I do strongly believe that we can hold multiple thoughts on this subject at the same time and that we don’t have to be defending colonization in order to worry about some of the ramifications and fallout of recent events. There are several:

1. In the short term vital supplies of medicine, food, and water will not reach their intended destination. Brookings has a good piece on this here. Those who are most destitute will suffer the most. The Conversation makes clear people will die.
2. Many people, tens of thousands, mainly in the global south, will lose their livelihoods.  It isn’t primarily an American issue. We can hold positive thoughts for them and their international colleagues, even if we find their system broken. Peter Hailey, OBE, has written about his own conversations and I have had similar talks with friends and former colleagues worldwide.
3. Although not an intended impact, the aid industry is a significant form of employment in many marginalized places around the work. It provides income in the local economy to support local businesses. This will radically change.
4. Whatever the end result of the USAID freeze, we know certain activities will not be funded. Programmes around climate change, environmental protection, and landscapes will not be funded. Nor will programs supporting Indigenous peoples, the rights of women and reproductive health, or GBLTQ+ communities continue. Foundations, philanthropists, and the private sector will need courage and foresight to step up and reimagine how to support some vital activities. Local actors will be key.
5. More positively, we will all out of necessity have to rethink, There is been so much talk on local solutions and decolonization, well articulated by @Degan Ali in this talk. However, action has been extremely limited partly by design and partly by omission and, frankly, part;y by not knowing what to do. This quote from Damien Green in his Poverty to Power blog at Oxfam International is pertinent…’ the last couple of weeks have finally exposed the folly and fragility of aid dependence. As the West declined relatively, and the sea of populism rose all around us, many in the aid sector just tried to carry on as usual, hoping that aid budgets might stay under the politicians’ radar… It feels like that era is over.’ Let’s embrace that and see what may be possible once the dust settles. Maybe we really can do much better.
6. Let’s talk much more about local resources, local philanthropy, and national governments finding ways to serve their populations. There is so much going on from the great work across Africa from EPIC Africa to the East Africa Philanthropy Network, and many others. Let’s actually really embrace the local, let the shift from aid from afar take place, and work out a new, more inclusive, locally led aid system. Indeed, let’s get rid of the word ‘aid’ and replace it with something empowering,

So yes, this a huge shock, is having appalling consequences and we need to recognise that. And it presents an opportunity to reimagine aid (to borrow a phrase from Arbie Baguios) and to do things very differently.

I know many people here are directly impacted. What are you thinking for yourself, your organizations and our operating systems? Do you see an opportunity in the chaos too?